{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "id": "e561ebe0",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np # 数据处理最重要的模块\n",
    "import pandas as pd # 数据处理最重要的模块\n",
    "import scipy.stats as stats # 统计模块\n",
    "import scipy\n",
    "# import pymysql  # 导入数据库模块\n",
    "\n",
    "from datetime import datetime # 时间模块\n",
    "import statsmodels.formula.api as smf  # OLS regression\n",
    "\n",
    "# import pyreadr # read RDS file\n",
    "\n",
    "from matplotlib import style\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt  # 画图模块\n",
    "import matplotlib.dates as mdates\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "from matplotlib.font_manager import FontProperties # 作图中文\n",
    "from pylab import mpl\n",
    "#mpl.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['SimHei']\n",
    "#plt.rcParams['font.family'] = 'Times New Roman'\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "#输出矢量图 渲染矢量图\n",
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'svg'\n",
    "\n",
    "from IPython.core.interactiveshell import InteractiveShell # jupyter运行输出的模块\n",
    "#显示每一个运行结果\n",
    "InteractiveShell.ast_node_interactivity = 'all'\n",
    "\n",
    "#设置行不限制数量\n",
    "#pd.set_option('display.max_rows',None)\n",
    "\n",
    "#设置列不限制数量\n",
    "pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "id": "5bf3c2f4",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>rfmonth</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret3</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret6</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret12</th>\n",
       "      <th>Q</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.029998</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.036554</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.023068</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.029624</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.084127</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.305662</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254049</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.010203</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021860</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003273</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014930</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.183573</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.384745</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.241492</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.099663</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.060425</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006930</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.106593</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.067355</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.252928</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.445049</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.288857</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.079652</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006651</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.086303</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.038100</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.234776</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.394937</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.691749</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.074521</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005375</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006092</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.080613</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.000717</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.236294</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.181673</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.542701</td>\n",
       "      <td>1991 Q2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031468</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033685</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032586</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.034803</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151050</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.195992</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.227078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.194874</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.225960</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200147</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003409</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.069102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.009724</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045312</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008606</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.044194</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002679</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.040799</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003797</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041917</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>408 rows × 9 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "1991-01-31  0.029998   0.036554  0.006930  0.023068  0.029624   -0.084127   \n",
       "1991-02-28  0.010203   0.021860  0.006930  0.003273  0.014930   -0.183573   \n",
       "1991-03-31 -0.099663  -0.060425  0.006930 -0.106593 -0.067355   -0.252928   \n",
       "1991-04-30 -0.079652  -0.031449  0.006651 -0.086303 -0.038100   -0.234776   \n",
       "1991-05-31 -0.074521   0.005375  0.006092 -0.080613 -0.000717   -0.236294   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q  \n",
       "month                                         \n",
       "1991-01-31   -0.305662     0.254049  1991 Q1  \n",
       "1991-02-28   -0.384745     0.241492  1991 Q1  \n",
       "1991-03-31   -0.445049     0.288857  1991 Q1  \n",
       "1991-04-30   -0.394937     0.691749  1991 Q2  \n",
       "1991-05-31    0.181673     1.542701  1991 Q2  \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  \n",
       "\n",
       "[408 rows x 9 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 2,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from pandas.tseries.offsets import MonthEnd # 月末\n",
    "Market_ret = pd.read_csv(r\"D:\\360MoveData\\Users\\lenovo\\Documents\\xwechat_files\\wxid_g4jqpr3pny9q22_57d8\\msg\\file\\2025-09\\Marketret_mon_stock2024.csv\")\n",
    "Market_ret['month'] = pd.to_datetime(Market_ret['month'], format='%b %Y') + MonthEnd(0)\n",
    "Market_ret.set_index('month', inplace=True)\n",
    "Market_ret.sort_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "Market_ret = Market_ret.drop(columns=['Unnamed: 0'])\n",
    "Market_ret\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "id": "a3203c09",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>5.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>5.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>5.8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>6.7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1987-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>7.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-06-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2025-07-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>463 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            cpi\n",
       "month          \n",
       "1987-01-31  5.1\n",
       "1987-02-28  5.4\n",
       "1987-03-31  5.8\n",
       "1987-04-30  6.7\n",
       "1987-05-31  7.6\n",
       "...         ...\n",
       "2025-03-31 -0.1\n",
       "2025-04-30 -0.1\n",
       "2025-05-31 -0.1\n",
       "2025-06-30  0.1\n",
       "2025-07-31  0.0\n",
       "\n",
       "[463 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "inflation = pd.read_csv(r\"D:\\360MoveData\\Users\\lenovo\\Documents\\xwechat_files\\wxid_g4jqpr3pny9q22_57d8\\msg\\file\\2025-10\\inflation.csv\")\n",
    "inflation['month'] = pd.to_datetime(inflation['month'],format='%Y/%m/%d')\n",
    "inflation.set_index('month',inplace=True)\n",
    "inflation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "id": "13efd92a",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>pd</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>10.728048</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>10.889979</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>10.862945</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>10.858076</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>10.842070</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>409 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                   pd\n",
       "month                \n",
       "1990-12-31        NaN\n",
       "1991-01-31        NaN\n",
       "1991-02-28        NaN\n",
       "1991-03-31        NaN\n",
       "1991-04-30        NaN\n",
       "...               ...\n",
       "2024-08-31  10.728048\n",
       "2024-09-30  10.889979\n",
       "2024-10-31  10.862945\n",
       "2024-11-30  10.858076\n",
       "2024-12-31  10.842070\n",
       "\n",
       "[409 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "price_dividend = pd.read_csv(r\"D:\\360MoveData\\Users\\lenovo\\Documents\\xwechat_files\\wxid_g4jqpr3pny9q22_57d8\\msg\\file\\2025-10\\Price_dividend_mon2024.csv\")\n",
    "price_dividend['month'] = pd.date_range(start='1990-12-31', end='2024-12-31', freq='ME')\n",
    "price_dividend.set_index('month', inplace=True)\n",
    "price_dividend.sort_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "price_dividend = price_dividend.drop(columns=['Unnamed: 0'])\n",
    "price_dividend\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "id": "8bf9b0aa",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>pe</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>4.466562</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>4.501042</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>4.112082</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>4.111121</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>4.182871</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.502897</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.675435</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.635010</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.643930</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.652927</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>408 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                  pe\n",
       "month               \n",
       "1991-01-31  4.466562\n",
       "1991-02-28  4.501042\n",
       "1991-03-31  4.112082\n",
       "1991-04-30  4.111121\n",
       "1991-05-31  4.182871\n",
       "...              ...\n",
       "2024-08-31  2.502897\n",
       "2024-09-30  2.675435\n",
       "2024-10-31  2.635010\n",
       "2024-11-30  2.643930\n",
       "2024-12-31  2.652927\n",
       "\n",
       "[408 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "price_earning = pd.read_csv(r\"D:\\360MoveData\\Users\\lenovo\\Documents\\xwechat_files\\wxid_g4jqpr3pny9q22_57d8\\msg\\file\\2025-10\\Price_earnings_mon2024.csv\")\n",
    "price_earning['month'] = pd.date_range(start='1991-01-31', end='2024-12-31', freq='ME')\n",
    "price_earning.set_index('month', inplace=True)\n",
    "price_earning.sort_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "price_earning "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "id": "ee05ff8e",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>pb</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.886568</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>2.080065</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.949285</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.560324</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1991-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.970330</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.097936</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.275764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.254341</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.263924</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.261665</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>409 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                  pb\n",
       "month               \n",
       "1990-12-31  1.886568\n",
       "1991-01-31  2.080065\n",
       "1991-02-28  1.949285\n",
       "1991-03-31  1.560324\n",
       "1991-04-30  1.970330\n",
       "...              ...\n",
       "2024-08-31  0.097936\n",
       "2024-09-30  0.275764\n",
       "2024-10-31  0.254341\n",
       "2024-11-30  0.263924\n",
       "2024-12-31  0.261665\n",
       "\n",
       "[409 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "price_bookvalue = pd.read_csv(r\"D:\\360MoveData\\Users\\lenovo\\Documents\\xwechat_files\\wxid_g4jqpr3pny9q22_57d8\\msg\\file\\2025-10\\Price_bookvalue_mon2024.csv\")\n",
    "price_bookvalue['month'] = pd.date_range(start='1990-12-31', end='2024-12-31', freq='ME')\n",
    "price_bookvalue.set_index('month', inplace=True)\n",
    "price_bookvalue.sort_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "price_bookvalue"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "id": "95a4b457",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>rfmonth</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret3</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret6</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret12</th>\n",
       "      <th>Q</th>\n",
       "      <th>pd</th>\n",
       "      <th>pe</th>\n",
       "      <th>pb</th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.116298</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.125837</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.125017</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.134556</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041073</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.105319</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.244507</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.663551</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.763315</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.804480</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.014059</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.013693</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.022778</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.022412</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.027700</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.092838</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.166996</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.660139</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.741896</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.783696</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.130882</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.146959</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.122163</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138240</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.164264</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.167036</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.121024</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.798194</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.844483</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.866200</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.104304</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.101424</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.113023</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.110143</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.064104</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.019801</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.228282</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.587058</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.603794</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.614429</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.175455</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.199416</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.166736</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.190697</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.121428</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.156143</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.208097</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.589752</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.746883</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.760117</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031468</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033685</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032586</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.034803</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151050</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.728048</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.502897</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.097936</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.195992</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.227078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.194874</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.225960</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200147</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.889979</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.675435</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.275764</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003409</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.069102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.862945</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.635010</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254341</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.009724</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045312</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008606</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.044194</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.858076</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.643930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.263924</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002679</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.040799</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003797</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041917</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.842070</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.652927</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.261665</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>360 rows × 13 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "1995-01-31 -0.116298  -0.125837  0.008719 -0.125017 -0.134556   -0.041073   \n",
       "1995-02-28 -0.014059  -0.013693  0.008719 -0.022778 -0.022412   -0.027700   \n",
       "1995-03-31  0.130882   0.146959  0.008719  0.122163  0.138240    0.164264   \n",
       "1995-04-30 -0.104304  -0.101424  0.008719 -0.113023 -0.110143   -0.064104   \n",
       "1995-05-31  0.175455   0.199416  0.008719  0.166736  0.190697    0.121428   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q         pd        pe        pb  \\\n",
       "month                                                                         \n",
       "1995-01-31   -0.105319    -0.244507  1995 Q1  11.663551  2.763315  0.804480   \n",
       "1995-02-28    0.092838    -0.166996  1995 Q1  11.660139  2.741896  0.783696   \n",
       "1995-03-31    0.167036    -0.121024  1995 Q1  11.798194  2.844483  0.866200   \n",
       "1995-04-30    0.019801    -0.228282  1995 Q2  11.587058  2.603794  0.614429   \n",
       "1995-05-31    0.156143     0.208097  1995 Q2  11.589752  2.746883  0.760117   \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...        ...       ...       ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  10.728048  2.502897  0.097936   \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  10.889979  2.675435  0.275764   \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.862945  2.635010  0.254341   \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.858076  2.643930  0.263924   \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.842070  2.652927  0.261665   \n",
       "\n",
       "             cpi  \n",
       "month             \n",
       "1995-01-31  24.1  \n",
       "1995-02-28  22.4  \n",
       "1995-03-31  21.3  \n",
       "1995-04-30  20.7  \n",
       "1995-05-31  20.3  \n",
       "...          ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31   0.6  \n",
       "2024-09-30   0.4  \n",
       "2024-10-31   0.3  \n",
       "2024-11-30   0.2  \n",
       "2024-12-31   0.1  \n",
       "\n",
       "[360 rows x 13 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data = pd.merge(Market_ret,price_dividend,on = 'month')\n",
    "reg_data = pd.merge(reg_data,price_earning,on = 'month')\n",
    "reg_data = pd.merge(reg_data,price_bookvalue,on='month')\n",
    "reg_data = pd.merge(reg_data,inflation,on='month')\n",
    "reg_data = reg_data[reg_data.index >= '1995-01-31']\n",
    "reg_data"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "id": "75052ac3",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "count    360.00000\n",
       "mean       3.02297\n",
       "std        0.47233\n",
       "min        2.33970\n",
       "25%        2.62983\n",
       "50%        2.85453\n",
       "75%        3.47006\n",
       "max        3.99791\n",
       "Name: pe, dtype: float64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 8,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['pe'].describe().round(5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "id": "3b5c4f04",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "np.float64(0.5756635597052367)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "np.float64(-0.8558098273039034)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['pb'].skew()\n",
    "reg_data['pb'].kurtosis()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "id": "739dbd56",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-34\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_12\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_12\">\n",
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       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_12\">\n",
       "      <!-- 2005 -->\n",
       "      <g transform=\"translate(246.460144 331.968125) rotate(-90) scale(0.1 -0.1)\">\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(63.623047 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-35\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_13\">\n",
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       "      <g transform=\"translate(263.404826 331.968125) rotate(-90) scale(0.1 -0.1)\">\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(63.623047 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-36\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_14\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_14\">\n",
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       "      <!-- 2007 -->\n",
       "      <g transform=\"translate(280.349509 331.968125) rotate(-90) scale(0.1 -0.1)\">\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(63.623047 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-37\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_15\">\n",
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       "      <!-- 2008 -->\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-38\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_16\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_16\">\n",
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       "      <!-- 2009 -->\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(63.623047 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-39\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_17\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_17\">\n",
       "      <g>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_20\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_20\">\n",
       "      <g>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#mf30d312805\" x=\"379.351076\" y=\"299.518125\" style=\"stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_20\">\n",
       "      <!-- 2013 -->\n",
       "      <g transform=\"translate(382.110451 331.968125) rotate(-90) scale(0.1 -0.1)\">\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(63.623047 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-33\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_21\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_21\">\n",
       "      <g>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#mf30d312805\" x=\"396.295759\" y=\"299.518125\" style=\"stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8\"/>\n",
       "      </g>\n",
       "     </g>\n",
       "     <g id=\"text_21\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(63.623047 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-34\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_22\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_22\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-35\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_23\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_23\">\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-36\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_24\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_24\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-37\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_25\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_25\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-38\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_26\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_26\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-39\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_27\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-30\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_28\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_28\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_30\">\n",
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      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 1000x500 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5)) # 图片比例\n",
    "ax = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1)  # 定义ax\n",
    "ax.plot(\n",
    "    'pe',  # 要画图的变量名\n",
    "    '.-r',  # 线的类型\n",
    "    linewidth = 1,  # 线的粗细\n",
    "    data = reg_data['1995-01-01':'2024-12-31'])  # 画图的数据\n",
    "plt.title(\"China's Stock Market Price Earnings Ratio\") # 画图的标题\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Month') # 画图的x轴名称\n",
    "plt.ylabel('PE') # 画图的y轴名称\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "\n",
    "# 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 90)\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "id": "03128fb0",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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       "<Figure size 1000x500 with 1 Axes>"
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     "metadata": {},
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   ],
   "source": [
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5)) # 图片比例\n",
    "ax = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1)  # 定义ax\n",
    "ax.plot(\n",
    "    'pe',  # 要画图的变量名\n",
    "    '.-r',  # 线的类型\n",
    "    linewidth = 1,  # 线的粗细\n",
    "    data = reg_data['1995-01-01':'2023-12-31'])  # 画图的数据\n",
    "ax.plot(\n",
    "    'pb',  # 要画图的变量名\n",
    "    '.-g',  # 线的类型\n",
    "    linewidth = 1,  # 线的粗细\n",
    "    data = reg_data['1995-01-01':'2023-12-31'])  # 画图的数据\n",
    "ax.plot(\n",
    "    'pd',  # 要画图的变量名\n",
    "    '.-b',  # 线的类型\n",
    "    linewidth = 1,  # 线的粗细\n",
    "    data = reg_data['1995-01-01':'2023-12-31'])  # 画图的数据\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.title(\"China's Stock Market Price Ratio\") # 画图的标题\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Month') # 画图的x轴名称\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "\n",
    "# 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 90)\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.legend()\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "id": "305e527a",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"text_26\">\n",
       "     <!-- Return -->\n",
       "     <g transform=\"translate(844.960938 53.594688) scale(0.1 -0.1)\">\n",
       "      <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-52\"/>\n",
       "      <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-65\" transform=\"translate(64.982422 0)\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "   </g>\n",
       "  </g>\n",
       " </g>\n",
       " <defs>\n",
       "  <clipPath id=\"pdcc6d8c8b2\">\n",
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       "  </clipPath>\n",
       " </defs>\n",
       "</svg>\n"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 1500x500 with 2 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15, 5))\n",
    "ax1 = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1)  #(x, x, x)这里前两个表示几*几的网格，最后一个表示第几子图\n",
    "\n",
    "ax1.plot(reg_data['pd'],\n",
    "         color='blue',\n",
    "         marker='.',\n",
    "         linestyle='-',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         markersize=6,\n",
    "         alpha=0.4,\n",
    "         label='pd')\n",
    "ax1.set_xlabel('month')  # 设置横坐标标签\n",
    "ax1.set_ylabel('Price Ratio')  # 设置左边纵坐标标签\n",
    "ax1.set_title(\"Price Ratio and Return: Monthly 2000-2021\")  # 给整张图命名\n",
    "\n",
    "ax2 = ax1.twinx()  #twinx()函数表示共享x轴\n",
    "ax2.plot(reg_data['ret'],\n",
    "         color='red',\n",
    "         marker='o',\n",
    "         linestyle='-',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         markersize=2,\n",
    "         alpha=0.7,\n",
    "         label='Return')\n",
    "ax2.set_ylabel('Return')  # 设置右边纵坐标标签\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "\n",
    "# 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 90)\n",
    "\n",
    "lines,labels = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels()\n",
    "lines2,labels2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()\n",
    "ax2.legend(lines+lines2,labels+labels2,loc='upper right')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "id": "4f8b5530",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "原始序列的ADF检验结果:\n",
      "ADF Statistic: -3.0112\n",
      "p-value: 0.0339\n",
      "Critical Values:\n",
      "   1%: -3.4526\n",
      "   5%: -2.8713\n",
      "   10%: -2.5720\n",
      "结论: p-value小于0.05，拒绝原假设，序列是平稳的。\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller as ADF\n",
    "\n",
    "# 对月收益率数据进行ADF检验\n",
    "adf_result = ADF(reg_data[reg_data.index >= '2000-01-31']['pd'])\n",
    "\n",
    "print('原始序列的ADF检验结果:')\n",
    "print(f'ADF Statistic: {adf_result[0]:.4f}')\n",
    "print(f'p-value: {adf_result[1]:.4f}')\n",
    "print('Critical Values:')\n",
    "for key, value in adf_result[4].items():\n",
    "    print(f'   {key}: {value:.4f}')\n",
    "\n",
    "if adf_result[1] <= 0.05:\n",
    "    print('结论: p-value小于0.05，拒绝原假设，序列是平稳的。')\n",
    "else:\n",
    "    print('结论: p-value大于0.05，未能拒绝原假设，序列是非平稳的。')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "id": "41296095",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    ret   R-squared:                       0.001\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                 -0.003\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                    0.1569\n",
      "Date:                Wed, 15 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):              0.692\n",
      "Time:                        14:23:45   Log-Likelihood:                 349.00\n",
      "No. Observations:                 300   AIC:                            -694.0\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     298   BIC:                            -686.6\n",
      "Df Model:                           1                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0436      0.090      0.482      0.630      -0.134       0.221\n",
      "lpd           -0.0032      0.008     -0.396      0.692      -0.019       0.013\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       14.166   Durbin-Watson:                   1.692\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.001   Jarque-Bera (JB):               34.674\n",
      "Skew:                           0.031   Prob(JB):                     2.96e-08\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.664   Cond. No.                         199.\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['lpd'] = reg_data['pd'].shift(1)\n",
    "model_fore_pd = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_fore_pd.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "id": "6d112071",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    ret   R-squared:                       0.036\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.030\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     3.796\n",
      "Date:                Wed, 15 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):             0.0236\n",
      "Time:                        14:23:55   Log-Likelihood:                 354.44\n",
      "No. Observations:                 300   AIC:                            -702.9\n",
      "Df Residuals:                     297   BIC:                            -691.8\n",
      "Df Model:                           2                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.0805      0.091      0.882      0.378      -0.098       0.259\n",
      "lcpi          -0.0074      0.003     -2.740      0.006      -0.013      -0.002\n",
      "lpd           -0.0051      0.008     -0.642      0.521      -0.021       0.010\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       15.117   Durbin-Watson:                   1.749\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.001   Jarque-Bera (JB):               35.130\n",
      "Skew:                           0.149   Prob(JB):                     2.35e-08\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.650   Cond. No.                         204.\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 6 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "reg_data['lcpi'] = reg_data['cpi'].shift(2)\n",
    "model_cpipd = smf.ols('ret ~ lcpi + lpd',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "print(model_cpipd.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "id": "1d00b6b3",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>rfmonth</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret3</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret6</th>\n",
       "      <th>marketret12</th>\n",
       "      <th>Q</th>\n",
       "      <th>pd</th>\n",
       "      <th>pe</th>\n",
       "      <th>pb</th>\n",
       "      <th>cpi</th>\n",
       "      <th>lpd</th>\n",
       "      <th>lcpi</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>month</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.116298</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.125837</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.125017</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.134556</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041073</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.105319</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.244507</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.663551</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.763315</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.804480</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.014059</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.013693</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.022778</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.022412</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.027700</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.092838</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.166996</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.660139</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.741896</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.783696</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.663551</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.130882</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.146959</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.122163</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138240</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.164264</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.167036</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.121024</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.798194</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.844483</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.866200</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.660139</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.104304</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.101424</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.113023</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.110143</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.064104</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.019801</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.228282</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.587058</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.603794</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.614429</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.798194</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.175455</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.199416</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.166736</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.190697</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.121428</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.156143</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.208097</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.589752</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.746883</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.760117</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.587058</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.031468</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.033685</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032586</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.034803</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151050</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.728048</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.502897</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.097936</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.778043</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.195992</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.227078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.194874</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.225960</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200147</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.889979</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.675435</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.275764</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.728048</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003409</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.069102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.862945</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.635010</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254341</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.889979</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.009724</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045312</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008606</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.044194</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.858076</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.643930</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.263924</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.862945</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.002679</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.040799</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003797</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041917</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.842070</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.652927</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.261665</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.858076</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>360 rows × 15 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "1995-01-31 -0.116298  -0.125837  0.008719 -0.125017 -0.134556   -0.041073   \n",
       "1995-02-28 -0.014059  -0.013693  0.008719 -0.022778 -0.022412   -0.027700   \n",
       "1995-03-31  0.130882   0.146959  0.008719  0.122163  0.138240    0.164264   \n",
       "1995-04-30 -0.104304  -0.101424  0.008719 -0.113023 -0.110143   -0.064104   \n",
       "1995-05-31  0.175455   0.199416  0.008719  0.166736  0.190697    0.121428   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q         pd        pe        pb  \\\n",
       "month                                                                         \n",
       "1995-01-31   -0.105319    -0.244507  1995 Q1  11.663551  2.763315  0.804480   \n",
       "1995-02-28    0.092838    -0.166996  1995 Q1  11.660139  2.741896  0.783696   \n",
       "1995-03-31    0.167036    -0.121024  1995 Q1  11.798194  2.844483  0.866200   \n",
       "1995-04-30    0.019801    -0.228282  1995 Q2  11.587058  2.603794  0.614429   \n",
       "1995-05-31    0.156143     0.208097  1995 Q2  11.589752  2.746883  0.760117   \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...        ...       ...       ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  10.728048  2.502897  0.097936   \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  10.889979  2.675435  0.275764   \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.862945  2.635010  0.254341   \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.858076  2.643930  0.263924   \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.842070  2.652927  0.261665   \n",
       "\n",
       "             cpi        lpd  lcpi  \n",
       "month                              \n",
       "1995-01-31  24.1        NaN   NaN  \n",
       "1995-02-28  22.4  11.663551   NaN  \n",
       "1995-03-31  21.3  11.660139  24.1  \n",
       "1995-04-30  20.7  11.798194  22.4  \n",
       "1995-05-31  20.3  11.587058  21.3  \n",
       "...          ...        ...   ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31   0.6  10.778043   0.2  \n",
       "2024-09-30   0.4  10.728048   0.5  \n",
       "2024-10-31   0.3  10.889979   0.6  \n",
       "2024-11-30   0.2  10.862945   0.4  \n",
       "2024-12-31   0.1  10.858076   0.3  \n",
       "\n",
       "[360 rows x 15 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
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    {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR</th>\n",
       "      <th>MarketR_e</th>\n",
       "      <th>rfmonth</th>\n",
       "      <th>ret</th>\n",
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       "      <th>1995-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.116298</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.125837</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.125017</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.134556</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041073</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.105319</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.244507</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.663551</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.763315</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.804480</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.014059</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.013693</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.022778</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.022412</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.027700</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.092838</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.166996</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.660139</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.741896</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.783696</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.663551</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-03-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.130882</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.146959</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.122163</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138240</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.164264</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.167036</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.121024</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.798194</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.844483</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.866200</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.660139</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.104304</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.101424</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.113023</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.110143</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.064104</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.019801</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.228282</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.587058</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.603794</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.614429</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.798194</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.175455</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.199416</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.166736</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.190697</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.121428</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.156143</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.208097</td>\n",
       "      <td>1995 Q2</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.589752</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.746883</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.760117</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.587058</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "      <td>-0.032586</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.034803</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151050</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.728048</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.502897</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.097936</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.778043</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
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       "      <td>0.225960</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200147</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.889979</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.675435</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.275764</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.728048</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021955</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-10-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003409</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.004527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.069102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.862945</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.635010</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254341</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.889979</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.020385</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2024-11-30</th>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
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       "      <td>-0.002679</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.040799</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001118</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.003797</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.041917</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024 Q4</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.842070</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.652927</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.261665</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.858076</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.022776</td>\n",
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      "text/plain": [
       "             MarketR  MarketR_e   rfmonth       ret     ret_e  marketret3  \\\n",
       "month                                                                       \n",
       "1995-01-31 -0.116298  -0.125837  0.008719 -0.125017 -0.134556   -0.041073   \n",
       "1995-02-28 -0.014059  -0.013693  0.008719 -0.022778 -0.022412   -0.027700   \n",
       "1995-03-31  0.130882   0.146959  0.008719  0.122163  0.138240    0.164264   \n",
       "1995-04-30 -0.104304  -0.101424  0.008719 -0.113023 -0.110143   -0.064104   \n",
       "1995-05-31  0.175455   0.199416  0.008719  0.166736  0.190697    0.121428   \n",
       "...              ...        ...       ...       ...       ...         ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31 -0.031468  -0.033685  0.001118 -0.032586 -0.034803    0.151050   \n",
       "2024-09-30  0.195992   0.227078  0.001118  0.194874  0.225960    0.200147   \n",
       "2024-10-31 -0.003409   0.070220  0.001118 -0.004527  0.069102    0.000228   \n",
       "2024-11-30  0.009724   0.045312  0.001118  0.008606  0.044194         NaN   \n",
       "2024-12-31 -0.002679  -0.040799  0.001118 -0.003797 -0.041917         NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "            marketret6  marketret12        Q         pd        pe        pb  \\\n",
       "month                                                                         \n",
       "1995-01-31   -0.105319    -0.244507  1995 Q1  11.663551  2.763315  0.804480   \n",
       "1995-02-28    0.092838    -0.166996  1995 Q1  11.660139  2.741896  0.783696   \n",
       "1995-03-31    0.167036    -0.121024  1995 Q1  11.798194  2.844483  0.866200   \n",
       "1995-04-30    0.019801    -0.228282  1995 Q2  11.587058  2.603794  0.614429   \n",
       "1995-05-31    0.156143     0.208097  1995 Q2  11.589752  2.746883  0.760117   \n",
       "...                ...          ...      ...        ...       ...       ...   \n",
       "2024-08-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  10.728048  2.502897  0.097936   \n",
       "2024-09-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q3  10.889979  2.675435  0.275764   \n",
       "2024-10-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.862945  2.635010  0.254341   \n",
       "2024-11-30         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.858076  2.643930  0.263924   \n",
       "2024-12-31         NaN          NaN  2024 Q4  10.842070  2.652927  0.261665   \n",
       "\n",
       "             cpi        lpd  lcpi  fitted_ret  \n",
       "month                                          \n",
       "1995-01-31  24.1        NaN   NaN         NaN  \n",
       "1995-02-28  22.4  11.663551   NaN         NaN  \n",
       "1995-03-31  21.3  11.660139  24.1         NaN  \n",
       "1995-04-30  20.7  11.798194  22.4         NaN  \n",
       "1995-05-31  20.3  11.587058  21.3         NaN  \n",
       "...          ...        ...   ...         ...  \n",
       "2024-08-31   0.6  10.778043   0.2    0.023927  \n",
       "2024-09-30   0.4  10.728048   0.5    0.021955  \n",
       "2024-10-31   0.3  10.889979   0.6    0.020385  \n",
       "2024-11-30   0.2  10.862945   0.4    0.022008  \n",
       "2024-12-31   0.1  10.858076   0.3    0.022776  \n",
       "\n",
       "[360 rows x 16 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 17,
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "      <!-- 2008 -->\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-32\"/>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_17\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "    <g id=\"xtick_20\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_21\">\n",
       "     <g id=\"line2d_21\">\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
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       "     </g>\n",
       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_23\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-36\" transform=\"translate(190.869141 0)\"/>\n",
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       "    </g>\n",
       "    <g id=\"xtick_24\">\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
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       "       <use xlink:href=\"#DejaVuSans-31\" transform=\"translate(127.246094 0)\"/>\n",
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       "    <g id=\"xtick_26\">\n",
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   "source": [
    "fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15, 5))\n",
    "ax = fig.add_subplot(1, 1, 1)  #(x, x, x)这里前两个表示几*几的网格，最后一个表示第几子图\n",
    "\n",
    "ax.plot(reg_data['ret'],\n",
    "         color='blue',\n",
    "         marker='.',\n",
    "         linestyle='-',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         markersize=6,\n",
    "         alpha=0.4,\n",
    "         label='Market Return')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('month')  # 设置横坐标标签\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Return')  # 设置左边纵坐标标签\n",
    "#plt.legend(loc=2)  # 设置图例在左上方\n",
    "plt.title(\"Return: Monthly 1995-2021\")  # 给整张图命名\n",
    "\n",
    "# ax2 = ax1.twinx()  #twinx()函数表示共享x轴\n",
    "ax.plot(reg_data['fitted_ret'],\n",
    "         color='red',\n",
    "         marker='o',\n",
    "         linestyle='-',\n",
    "         linewidth=1,\n",
    "         markersize=2,\n",
    "         alpha=0.7,\n",
    "         label='fitted_ret')\n",
    "# ax2.set_ylabel('fitted_mv')  # 设置右边纵坐标标签\n",
    "# ax2.legend(loc=1)  # 设置图例在右上方\n",
    "\n",
    "# 设置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "data_format = mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator())\n",
    "\n",
    "# 转置x轴的日期显示格式\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation = 90)\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.legend()\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show();"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "id": "088301de",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "    Table - OLS Regressions: Forecast Monthly Stock Market Return\n",
      "======================================================================\n",
      "                    1       2       3        4         5         6    \n",
      "----------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept        0.044   0.031   0.015*  0.021***  0.080     -0.131   \n",
      "                 (0.090) (0.033) (0.009) (0.007)   (0.091)   (0.323)  \n",
      "lpd              -0.003                            -0.005    0.032    \n",
      "                 (0.008)                           (0.008)   (0.038)  \n",
      "lpe                      -0.008                              -0.079*  \n",
      "                         (0.012)                             (0.046)  \n",
      "lpb                              -0.011                      0.022    \n",
      "                                 (0.015)                     (0.045)  \n",
      "lcpi                                     -0.007*** -0.007*** -0.009***\n",
      "                                         (0.003)   (0.003)   (0.003)  \n",
      "R-squared        0.001   0.002   0.004   0.034     0.036     0.051    \n",
      "R-squared Adj.   -0.003  -0.001  0.000   0.031     0.030     0.039    \n",
      "No. observations 300     300     300     300       300       300      \n",
      "======================================================================\n",
      "Standard errors in parentheses.\n",
      "* p<.1, ** p<.05, ***p<.01\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from statsmodels.iolib.summary2 import summary_col\n",
    "reg_data['lcpi'] = reg_data['cpi'].shift(2)\n",
    "reg_data['lpd'] = reg_data['pd'].shift(1)\n",
    "reg_data['lpe'] = reg_data['pe'].shift(1)\n",
    "reg_data['lpb'] = reg_data['pb'].shift(1)\n",
    "info_dict = {'No. observations': lambda x: f\"{int(x.nobs):d}\"}\n",
    "\n",
    "model_pd = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "model_pe = smf.ols('ret ~ lpe',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "model_pb = smf.ols('ret ~ lpb',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "model_cpi = smf.ols('ret ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "model_pdto = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "model_all = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd + lpe + lpb + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=reg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})\n",
    "\n",
    "results_table = summary_col(results=[model_pd,model_pe, model_pb, model_cpi, model_pdto,model_all],\n",
    "                            float_format='%0.3f', #数据显示的格式，默认四位小数\n",
    "                            stars=True, # 是否有*，True为有\n",
    "                            model_names=['1', '2', '3','4','5','6'],\n",
    "                            info_dict=info_dict,\n",
    "                            regressor_order=['Intercept', 'lpd','lpe','lpb','lcpi'])\n",
    "\n",
    "results_table.add_title(\n",
    "    'Table - OLS Regressions: Forecast Monthly Stock Market Return')\n",
    "\n",
    "print(results_table)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "id": "09ebbe2a",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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       "      <td>8.251599</td>\n",
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       "      <td>4.440000e+01</td>\n",
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       "      <td>32.449624</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.501171</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.396070</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.500000e+00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-12-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.000228</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.931867</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.779930</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.563092</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.000000e-01</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>120 rows × 5 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                 ret        pe        pb         pd           cpi\n",
       "month                                                            \n",
       "1995-03-31 -0.040492  8.349693  2.454375  35.121883  6.780000e+01\n",
       "1995-06-30 -0.063176  8.005821  2.042218  34.608962  5.920000e+01\n",
       "1995-09-30  0.087428  8.251599  2.205561  33.999484  4.440000e+01\n",
       "1995-12-31 -0.204470  8.047842  1.976356  33.852774  3.340000e+01\n",
       "1996-03-31 -0.022218  7.673771  1.633477  33.651385  2.810000e+01\n",
       "...              ...       ...       ...        ...           ...\n",
       "2023-12-31 -0.047820  7.616137  0.619491  32.449624 -1.000000e+00\n",
       "2024-03-31  0.006789  7.549200  0.490856  32.374321 -8.326673e-17\n",
       "2024-06-30 -0.034157  7.762520  0.508222  32.446852  8.000000e-01\n",
       "2024-09-30  0.155216  7.722831  0.501171  32.396070  1.500000e+00\n",
       "2024-12-31  0.000228  7.931867  0.779930  32.563092  6.000000e-01\n",
       "\n",
       "[120 rows x 5 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 20,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Qreg_data = reg_data.resample('QE').apply({\n",
    "    'ret':\n",
    "    lambda x: np.exp(sum(np.log( 1 + x))) - 1,\n",
    "    'pe':\n",
    "    lambda x: sum(x),\n",
    "    'pb':\n",
    "    lambda x: sum(x),\n",
    "    'pd':\n",
    "    lambda x: sum(x),\n",
    "    'cpi':\n",
    "    lambda x: sum(x),\n",
    "})\n",
    "Qreg_data"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "id": "367d7134",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                    ret   R-squared:                       0.081\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                  0.062\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                     3.664\n",
      "Date:                Wed, 15 Oct 2025   Prob (F-statistic):             0.0292\n",
      "Time:                        14:25:29   Log-Likelihood:                 50.174\n",
      "No. Observations:                 100   AIC:                            -94.35\n",
      "Df Residuals:                      97   BIC:                            -86.53\n",
      "Df Model:                           2                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:                  HAC                                         \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept      0.3894      0.296      1.316      0.188      -0.191       0.969\n",
      "lpd           -0.0094      0.009     -1.089      0.276      -0.026       0.007\n",
      "lcpi          -0.0072      0.003     -2.685      0.007      -0.012      -0.002\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                       21.243   Durbin-Watson:                   1.533\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):               28.489\n",
      "Skew:                           1.043   Prob(JB):                     6.51e-07\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       4.577   Cond. No.                         606.\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAC) using 2 lags and without small sample correction\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Qreg_data['lcpi'] = Qreg_data['cpi'].shift(1)\n",
    "Qreg_data['lpd'] = Qreg_data['pd'].shift(1)\n",
    "model_to = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "print(model_to.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "id": "ba4f17e8",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "             Table - OLS Regressions: Forecast Quarterly Stock Market Return\n",
      "=========================================================================================\n",
      "                    1       2       3       4         5         6         7         8    \n",
      "-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "Intercept        0.294   0.166   0.063** 0.064*** 0.389     0.244*    0.098***  -0.479   \n",
      "                 (0.312) (0.111) (0.031) (0.024)  (0.296)   (0.125)   (0.036)   (0.833)  \n",
      "lpd              -0.008                           -0.009                        0.038    \n",
      "                 (0.009)                          (0.009)                       (0.033)  \n",
      "lpe                      -0.016                             -0.020              -0.088** \n",
      "                         (0.013)                            (0.014)             (0.043)  \n",
      "lpb                              -0.018                               -0.016    0.016    \n",
      "                                 (0.016)                              (0.014)   (0.039)  \n",
      "lcpi                                     -0.007** -0.007*** -0.007*** -0.007*** -0.009***\n",
      "                                         (0.003)  (0.003)   (0.003)   (0.003)   (0.003)  \n",
      "R-squared        0.011   0.021   0.023   0.066    0.081     0.096     0.083     0.123    \n",
      "R-squared Adj.   0.001   0.011   0.013   0.056    0.062     0.078     0.064     0.086    \n",
      "No. observations 100     100     100     100      100       100       100       100      \n",
      "=========================================================================================\n",
      "Standard errors in parentheses.\n",
      "* p<.1, ** p<.05, ***p<.01\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from statsmodels.iolib.summary2 import summary_col\n",
    "Qreg_data['lcpi'] = Qreg_data['cpi'].shift(1)\n",
    "Qreg_data['lpd'] = Qreg_data['pd'].shift(1)\n",
    "Qreg_data['lpe'] = Qreg_data['pe'].shift(1)\n",
    "Qreg_data['lpb'] = Qreg_data['pb'].shift(1)\n",
    "\n",
    "info_dict = {'No. observations': lambda x: f\"{int(x.nobs):d}\"}\n",
    "\n",
    "model_pd = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_pe = smf.ols('ret ~ lpe',\n",
    "                    data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                        cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_pb = smf.ols('ret ~ lpb',\n",
    "                    data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                        cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_cpi = smf.ols('ret ~ lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_cpipd = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                        cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_cpipe = smf.ols('ret ~ lpe + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                        cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_cpipb = smf.ols('ret ~ lpb + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                        cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "model_all = smf.ols('ret ~ lpd + lpe + lpb + lcpi',\n",
    "                 data=Qreg_data['2000-01':'2024-12']).fit(\n",
    "                     cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 2})\n",
    "\n",
    "results_table = summary_col(results=[model_pd,model_pe, model_pb, model_cpi,model_cpipd,model_cpipe,model_cpipb,model_all],\n",
    "                            float_format='%0.3f', #数据显示的格式，默认四位小数\n",
    "                            stars=True, # 是否有*，True为有\n",
    "                            model_names=['1', '2', '3','4','5','6','7','8'],\n",
    "                            info_dict=info_dict,\n",
    "                            regressor_order=['Intercept','lpd','lpe','lpb','lcpi'])\n",
    "\n",
    "results_table.add_title(\n",
    "    'Table - OLS Regressions: Forecast Quarterly Stock Market Return')\n",
    "\n",
    "print(results_table)"
   ]
  }
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